Into the Abyss
The controversial quest for a green transition at the bottom of the sea. Deep-sea mining and its implications for our futures.
Source: Canva
Diving into the depths of the ocean, a controversial quest is unfolding, promising to reshape our green transition while simultaneously raising crucial global concerns. Beneath the waves lies a realm known as "The Area," a treasure trove of minerals that some argue are essential for driving our sustainable future.
Extraction companies and entire nations are venturing into this uncharted territory to extract the valuable materials that could power our green technologies. However, as these ambitious efforts surge forward, pressing questions arise: Can we strike a balance between reaping economic benefits and avoiding ecological calamity? Who bears the responsibility for the potential environmental repercussions?
In a world where deep sea mining could be the next great human endeavor, echoing past resource-driven quests that have defined our history and our planet’s future.
In recent years, water has evolved into a resource of increasing contention. Groundwater depletion compels deeper drilling, water scarcity leads to conflicts, oceans grapple with plastic pollution, and climate change breeds extreme weather patterns such as torrential rains and floods. The warming of our oceans stands among the most pressing concerns. What was once assumed a plentiful resource is now a pivotal battleground. Down below the surface of our oceans lures phenomenon akin to a modern gold rush, one that carries the potential to either catalyze the success of the green transition or inflict lasting, dire repercussions upon marine life.
From the pioneering descent of the Trieste into the Mariana Trench in 1960 to James Cameron's more recent Deapsea Challenger plunge in 2012, we have veered into the abyss, yet understand very little about what goes on down below. As terrestrial exploration has reached its limits, we have turned our gaze towards space, as the logical next step. We are on the verge of a new space era with commercial players vying for attention and recent achievements such as India's moon landing marking significant milestones.
Still, the expansive ocean depths remain as the last uncharted territories on the map. Beneath the ocean's surface lies an enigmatic realm, akin to an alternate planet, an abstract concept just beyond our grasp. This sprawling abyss constitutes nearly 50% of the global seabed, designated as the Common Heritage of Mankind, belonging to everyone and no one all at once.
THE TREASURE CHEST AT THE BOTTOM OF THE SEA
Two years ago, the tiny island nation of Nauru and Vancouver-based start-up The Metals Company (THC), led by the charismatic Gerard Barron triggered an obscure clause that forced the hand of the International Seabed Authority (ISA) to decide on the future of deep-sea mining. An industry that has been limited to explorations, research, and tests suddenly stood at a watershed moment. But not without controversy. The deep-sea mining debate is fueled by opposing views from those who fear for marine ecosystems to others who see the treasure chest of rare minerals as necessary to propel the green transition. Minerals hidden in the ocean's depths, untapped for ages, are now taking center stage as companies and nations are coming to understand the growing urgency to obtain these minerals, as well as their scarcity.
Most of the attention is focused on polymetallic nodules – small lumps rich in different metals scattered across the deep ocean floor. Initially identified during the 1872-6 HMS Challenger expedition, which laid the groundwork for modern oceanography, these nodules were believed to stem from volcanic materials but were later found to grow by absorbing metallic compounds from seawater. These nodules formed over millions of years, growing just centimeters, yet are fundamental anchors for various microorganisms and sponges, creating life in the otherwise harsh environment.
Enriched with manganese, nickel, cobalt, and copper, these nodules hold crucial elements for producing electric cars, wind turbines, and solar panels – essential for replacing carbon-emitting vehicles and power sources damaging the climate. The Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ), spans more than 4 million square kilometers from Mexico to Hawaii. It stands out as one of the most abundant repositories of these nodules containing an estimated six times more cobalt and three times more nickel than the total reserves found on land.
The endeavor to pursue deep-sea mining ahead is no small feat. In the depths of the ocean, where the pressure rivals that beneath a multitude of stacked jumbo jets, challenges abound. Navigating these obstacles necessitates the deployment of immense surface ships. These ships will deploy pipelines affixed to automated bulldozers, designed to traverse the abyssal seabed. These bulldozers will diligently gather nodules, which will then be suctioned from the depths and transported back up through five kilometers of water column to the surface.
DISPUTE OVER DEEP-SEA MINING
Still, just like unchecked land mining, underwater extraction could release harmful sediment and chemicals that harm ocean habitats.
At these depths, where food and energy are limited, life proceeds at an extraordinarily slow rate and populations could take centuries to recover. We might even miss further remarkable discoveries such as the immortal' jellyfish that can inspire inventions to improve lives. Without strong protections, the deep sea could risk becoming a Wild West of exploitation, where unrestrained plundering is possible.
Historically, humanity tends to act first and consider the consequences later. But with the debate roaring, this time it seems that we are trying to figure things out beforehand.
However, we have arrived at a point in time where we might not have the luxury to wait much longer. We are already in a climate crisis. And according to the World Bank (Scientific American), we'll need more than three billion (nonmetric) tons of minerals and metals to deploy the wind, solar and geothermal power required to avoid two degrees Celsius of global warming.
While the allure of deep-sea mining is strong, emerging trends suggest that it might not be the sole answer to our resource needs. Advancements in recycling technology and the rise of innovative batteries utilizing iron and phosphate instead of traditional materials such as nickel and cobalt could diminish the necessity for underwater extraction. Moreover, efforts to enhance environmental standards for land-based mining could curtail the ecological impact.
Although the complexities of deep-ocean science pose challenges, scientists advocate for more resources to unravel the potential consequences of mining. The Institute for Sustainable Futures (University of Technology, Sydney) proposes that a shift to 100 percent renewable energy might be feasible through land-based reserves, while the prospect of improving recyclability of metals from discarded electronics (i.e. urban mining) could offer a potential solution. As the world grapples with mounting electronic waste and seeks alternatives to conventional battery materials, the viability of deep-sea mining comes into question.
RACE TO THE BOTTOM HAS BEGUN
Yet Gerard Barron, Chairman and CEO of The Metals Company, is a firm believer in the potential of the industry. Learning from past mistakes, TMC stands at the forefront of the development.
According to international laws, private companies need to team up with a nation- state to do deep-sea mining. For TMC that has meant a partnership with Nauru, a country looking for renewed prosperity after facing economic struggles. Nauru is not alone in its quest. A range of nations, such as India, Japan, Russia, Germany, and Belgium, are actively vying for a stake in the race to mine the deep sea. China has already deployed mine exploration vessels to the Polar Sea, while Norway is evaluating nearby waters as a potential oil alternative. The United States' involvement adds a layer of complexity, keen on securing their mineral supply chains, while aiming to reduce its reliance on China, the dominant player in land-based mining of some of the vital resources. Resource independence and security holds significant sway in the evolving landscape of global power, underscoring the geopolitical significance of deep-sea mining.
As the race to uncover these underwater riches intensifies, the need to strike a balance between resource extraction and ecological preservation becomes ever more crucial. Scientists keep coming back to the fact that we are still oblivious to basic things about life and chemistry in the deep oceans. What kind of creatures live down there? How much carbon is locked away, and could mining risk releasing it? How much disruption can the ecosystem handle?
NARRATIVE WARFARE
We need to engage in deeper public discussions concerning deep sea mining and the narratives surrounding it. Both sides strive to emerge victorious in shaping the narrative, what Barron refers to as narrative warfare. Proponents highlight parallels with land-based mining, underscore the urgency of transitioning to greener practices, and sustaining current lifestyles. Opponents draw attention to the many mysterious creatures of the deep sea and point to the dangers of meddling with the unknown, linking it to the same extractive mistakes that precipitated the climate crisis. An open dialogue is essential to comprehensively deliberate the extensive ramifications of whichever path we choose for our common heritage.
The International Seabed Authority (ISA) confronts the unique challenge of formulating global ocean mining laws – no other resources are managed this way. The organization recently halted the issuance of deep-sea mining permits until its mining regulations are finalized, which could extend into 2025. This decision aims to establish a unified framework before permitting any international waters mining. If Nauru and TMC adhere to these regulations, deep-sea mining might commence by 2026. Over twenty nations now advocate this delay, in contrast with just a few a years ago.
CONSIDERATIONS FOR FUTURISTS
The trade-off between addressing global warming, biodiversity, and economic interests is immense. To solve one big problem, we risk creating another. This is a truth that all professional futurists must weigh whenever they are helping an organization(s) better understand what lies ahead.
Is it a risk we are willing to take and is it worth it? A lot depends on our trust in the seabed authority and in the extraction companies.
Will they stop if it turns out to have major consequences for the marine environment?
And if there is an adverse impact, whose responsibility is it to deal with the consequences?
One thing is certain: Deep-sea mining looms as a veritable minefield with high stakes for our marine ecosystems, our tech-based lifestyles, and the future health of our planet.
Originally published in the Compass Magazine: Water and Futures and on their website (Association of Professional Futurists)
SOURCES:
"På dybt vand" by C. Grunnet & H. Mosbech, Zetland, In deep waters, a series of six articles from 2021-23. Link
"Is deep-sea mining a cure for the climate crisis or a curse?” Robin McKie, 2021, The Guardian. Link
"Deep-sea mining could soon be approved — how bad is it?" Natasha Gilbert, 2023, Nature. Link
"Deep-Sea Mining Could Begin Soon, Regulated or Not," Olive Heffernan, Scientific American, September 1, 2023. Link
"Pacific Seabed Mining Delayed as International Agency Finalizes Rules," Eric Lipton, The New York Times, July 23, 2023. Link
"What Does the High Seas Treaty Mean for Deep- Sea Mining?" Martha Henriques, BBC Future, 2023. Link
”’Immortal Jellyfish’ Could Spur Discoveries About Human Aging,” Margaret Osborne, Smithsonian Magazine, 2022. Link
