7 Things Futurists Could Do Better
In a world marked by incessant change, the significance of futures thinking has never been more pronounced. Futurists play a pivotal role in anticipating and navigating the uncertainties of tomorrow. However, in a field that revolves around constant evolution, there is ample room for improvement. Drawing from my personal experiences and insights gained in 2023, this article delves into ways in which futurists can enhance their practice and contribute to a brighter future.
Photo by Ramón Salinero on Unsplash
Let me share some of my discoveries on how to become a better futurist and, more importantly, how to contribute to a brighter future.
1. MAKE FUTURES IMMERSIVE
To become better futurists, we must find new ways to immerse ourselves and others in the possibilities of the future. Traditional lengthy reports, while valuable, are gradually losing efficacy in our information-overloaded world. Visual storytelling, simulations, and interactive experiences can help people truly understand and engage with the potential outcomes of tomorrow. By making futures immersive, we can inspire action and drive meaningful change.
Recently, an interactive exhibition on Salvador Dalí that I attended showcased the potential of immersive experiences. Dalí envisioned a future where machines could autonomously think and create art. The exhibition featured an immersive video entirely generated by an AI algorithm analyzing thousands of Dalí's works. The creation process remained untouched by human intervention, highlighting the capabilities of AI in bringing to life the products of human imagination. The immersiveness of the had a much bigger impact on me than a visit to a traditional museum would have had. Imagination, as demonstrated by Dalí, serves as a powerful reminder in an age where it often seems constrained. Futurists must look beyond existing frames to discover the new and the unknown, moving people out of their reality and into new worlds.
The impact of immersive experiences extends beyond conventional approaches. Superflux, a London-based design and experiential futures firm, contributed to exhibitions such as "Mitigation of Shock (London, 2050)," a tour around a future London apartment adapted to climate change, fostering adaptability and resilience.[1] Similarly, Institute for the Future's Superstruct Quarantine simulation in 2008 engaged 10,000 participants globally, which turned out to have mentally prepared them for a potential pandemic, as revealed by anecdotes during the COVID-19 pandemic.[2]
2. SPEAK THE LANGUAGE OF ORGANIZATIONS
We need to get better at bridging the gap between the complex language of applied foresight and the everyday language used in organizations. Rather than introducing unnecessary complexity with jargon, we should aim for precision and clarity. To be effective, futurists need to communicate in a way that resonates with the people they are working with, translating their insights into actionable strategies.
There is a tendency to use fascinating but confusing words when interacting with organizations, which may not align with the realities of their hierarchies, processes, systems, cultures, and budgets. Because of this, our impact is sometimes reduced to a one-time stroke of inspiration, rather than an ongoing effort to work within organizations and help them create and understand change from the inside.
Empathy is crucial for futurists to understand an organization's and its employees' hopes, fears, and dreams. It’s our responsibility to help change the mindset of organizations so they can see solutions not currently visible to them. As the saying goes, you cannot solve any problem from the same thinking that created it.
Understanding the maturity levels of different organizations and finding the right balance of new concepts is key in this regard. Immersing yourself in the organization's processes and problems, along with understanding the individual goals and concerns, is necessary to make a meaningful impact.
One effective approach I use often is investing time and effort to better understand which organizations I’m working with. I conduct interviews with primary contacts, and involve participants in identifying key organizational issues before entering the workshop process or phase of a project. This not only significantly bolsters the final outcome but also empowers me to guide discussions more effectively, getting to the very core of their curiosity and concerns.
3. UNDERSTAND WHERE NON-FUTURISTS COME FROM
As humans, we perceive the world through different lenses, leading to an incomplete view of reality. To make sense of this incomplete view, we construct narratives that fill in the gaps and provide us with a sense of control. It’s not natural for everyone to be curious, open-minded, aware of biases, think in scenarios and so on. Quite the opposite actually.
As futurists, we have the luxury of working with imagination, curiosity, and the ability to see interconnections and think in systems. However, foresight often deals with intricate and interconnected concepts, which can be intimidating for non-futurists. To overcome this, we should be better at using relatable metaphors and analogies to make the complexities of foresight more tangible.
For instance, comparing a foresight process to traveling in time can make the complexities of foresight more tangible and accessible. Viewing the exploration of potential futures as a journey, akin to planning a holiday trip to a new destination, can help individuals relate to the process. What could the weather be like, how's the local culture, what should I bring (and shouldn't I bring), etc. Just as people prepare for different situations in their personal lives, planning for the future provides a sense of direction and readiness for what lies ahead.
Balancing the fascination of the future with practical relevance (identification) is crucial. Instead of constant internal debates within the discipline, there should be a focus on making futures literacy more widespread. The future is inherently fascinating to imagine, and futurists should find a balance between fascination and identification, making futures thinking relevant and useful to a broader audience. Not to say that rigor is not important, but it takes at least a basic awareness to fully see the potential of structured foresight.
4. USE A PROBLEM-DRIVEN APPROACH
One-size-fits-all methodologies is not always suitable for the diverse set of challenges we encounter as futurists. To improve our practice, we should be better at tailoring our approach to the specific problem at hand, drawing insights from adjacent disciplines like strategy, design, and innovation. Flexibility and adaptability, rather than force-fitting a specific framework to every project, can lead to unique solutions addressing complex issues.
We need to make an effort to understand the problem at hand before coming up with a solution. Sounds like common sense, but it’s easier said than done. While scenario planning may work for some projects, others may require different tools such as the use of a futures wheel, personas, or tools not directly related to foresight. Meaningful change, considering both inbound and outbound change and its societal impact, requires a deep understanding of the present and an exploration of potential futures.
In a project I did with an intergovernmental organization, we needed to think more creatively than what was the initial task. Rather than the requested trends report, we realized that there was a broader desire and a need for a wide-ranging foresight movement internally in the organization, which was stuck in old patterns. We made the trends report the first step of a broader futures exploration, setting up a plan to build foresight into every step of the strategic planning process and expand futures thinking. Futurists need to go beyond conventional approaches, understanding the unique needs of each project and applying a problem-driven approach instead.
5. REALIZE THAT ‘NORMALITY’ IS EVER-CHANGING
In our dynamic world, what we consider "normal" is continually evolving. As futurists, we must recognize that perspectives vary depending on the context. By understanding the different lenses through which people view the world, we can engage in more meaningful discussions about what lies ahead. It's crucial to acknowledge and embrace the fluidity of normality.
Some argue that we live in post-normal times [3], where the concept of 'normal' is in constant flux. We do live in a changing world, where we tend to quickly forget how things were. Have you ever noticed how certain environmental changes, such as the overfishing of the oceans can seem normal or insignificant to us over time? This phenomenon, the shifting baselines syndrome, relates to how gradual changes make certain conditions seem normal or insignificant over time, and affects our perception of the world. Generational amnesia masks the true state of things, and society loses its perception of change with each generation redefining what is 'normal.'
The question is: what is “normal,” really? Usually, it is a temporary condition, but often our perception is that the status quo will last forever, and the present will extend into the future. Understanding the significance of being part of the present reality while maintaining a forward-looking perspective is essential. While large-scale changes, such as those brought about by COVID-19, may occur, people often revert to old habits. As futurists, we must emphasize the importance of being present while anticipating the future, avoiding complacency, and striving to comprehend and explore the future with an open- minded approach.
6. IDENTITY AND LANGUAGE MATTER
Even in today's globalized world, identities, languages, and communication styles shape perceptions and collaborations. To become better futurists, we must enhance our understanding of these factors, recognizing the impact of cultural backgrounds, beliefs, and values on how people perceive and plan for the future. Fostering empathy and promoting cross- cultural collaboration contribute to building a more inclusive and equitable future.
Acknowledging one's context and biases is essential when working internationally, and something I always make a habit of stating during a project. My background impacts how I see the world, but I also understand and emphasize that my view of the world is just one and not necessarily the ‘right’ one.
This also comes from the experience of my time living and working in the vibrant culture of the Basque Country, collaborating with clients deeply rooted in a robust identity, where the choice of language holds significant weight. Early in my career, I led a workshop for the strategy department of a global company based in Latin America, delving into the future of urban mobility. Their perspectives not only differed starkly from my own but also varied among themselves. This divergence transformed the discussion into a localized “case”-focused dialogue, veering away from broader shifts and their implications, as participants shared specific examples from their cities.
Moreover, within countries, diverse temporalities exist, reflecting differing social attitudes and representations of time. Certain cultures envision the future through grand visions, while others grapple with the inability to imagine the future, when the present is already volatile and uncertain. I vividly recall a conversation with a business partner from Brazil, who expressed that when even the past is uncertain it’s difficult to think ahead. A stark contrast in approaches to the future is evident in the long-term and ambitious visions set by the UAE and Saudi Arabia. We need to better recognize these differences in temporal perspectives to tailor our approach to different audiences.
7. CHANGE THE EDUCATION PARADIGM
As our world accelerates, and AI becomes a driving force of change, education systems face pressure to evolve. As futurists, we should contribute by advocating for substantial changes, not just incremental ones, emphasizing the development of critical thinking and resilience in students. By preparing educational systems for dramatic shifts, we can help create a generation better equipped to navigate the challenges and opportunities of tomorrow.
Our education systems are facing a crisis. For too long, we have focused on teaching facts and information. Shifting the focus from teaching facts to teaching skills, and from just-in-case to just-in-time learning, is necessary. Skills such as critical thinking, problem-solving, creativity, collaboration, communication, and adaptability will become increasingly important to thrive and find work.
Initiatives such as Teach the Future play a crucial role in building imagination and instilling agency in children to create their preferred future. We live in a world where we need to prepare for multiple futures, because society develops in increasingly non-linear ways. Our decisions today shape the world of tomorrow, making it crucial to consider the broader implications of our actions.
We need to ask ourselves: Whose future is it that we are striving for? Is it ours, a collective one or the vision of a billionaire or rich country?
MEASURING LONG-TERM IMPACTS
A final point is that we need to be better at discussing the long-term impacts and outcomes of doing foresight. To help position foresight better in society and in organization we need to measure and demonstrate that foresight can lead to tangible, real-world impacts. The work done by the APF in improving foresight evaluation is a good step in that direction [6].
The journey to becoming a better futurist is a process as never-ending as the changing of times. These insights are not exclusive to futurists alone; I hope they might resonate with consultants, innovators, educators, and forward- thinkers who share the vision of creating a more promising tomorrow.
Originally published in the Association of Professional Futurists’ magazine Compass issue about Collapse (February 2024).
REFERENCES
1. https://superflux.in/index.php/work/mitigation-of-shock/#
2. https://medium.com/institute-for-the-future/during-a-pandemic-we-all-need-to- stretch-our-imagination-a9295cfcd1f8
3. https://postnormaltim.es/what-postnormal-times
4. https://journals.openedition.org/remmm/8817
5. https://www.teachthefuture.org
6. https://www.apf.org/product-page/apf-foresight-evaluation-task-force-report
