How to Build Futures Scenarios: 14 Key Questions

Navigating futures and crafting robust strategies through a structured scenario planning approach

Scenarios are used to explore potential futures, and can be an important tool for decision-making and planning. However, it’s important to build scenarios that are grounded in reality, take into account a range of factors, and are based on a comprehensive understanding of the environment in which the scenario will play out. To build effective scenarios, there are several key questions that must be asked.

Here are some of the most important questions to consider when building scenarios:

1: What happened that made each scenario possible?

We need to understand what led us to alterative futures worlds to better understand the dynamics that should be part of the narrative.

2: What are the main assumptions underlying the scenarios?

Assumptions are the foundation of any scenario and we need to identify and consider them to ensure they are reasonable. We need to make sure that scenarios challenge existing assumptions.

3: What do the scenarios feel like, i.e. what is the zeitgeist and what are key values in society?

The sign of the times, i.e. the cultural, social, and political context in which the scenario will play out is an important factor to consider.

4: What are the main drivers of change that could impact the scenarios?

Identifying the key factors that will shape the future is critical for building realistic scenarios.

5: What are the PESTEL implications in each scenario?

PESTEL stands for political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal factors, and to cover all bases, it’s good to go through the list and make sure they are all represented in the scenarios.

6: Which biases led us to create these scenarios?

We all have biases that can impact our scenario building, and it’s important to be aware of them and try to mitigate their impact to make the scenarios as objective as possible.

7: What are the essence and key dynamics of each scenario?

Understanding the key dynamics at play in the scenarios is essential for building compelling and realistic narratives.

8: What are the second- and third-order effects of the changes taking place?

There are often ripple effects that occur in response to major changes that might not be obvious at first.

9: What are the potential trade-offs that need to be made in each scenario?

There are often difficult decisions that need to be made in any scenario, and it’s key to identify and consider these trade-offs.

10: What are the implications of the scenarios for different stakeholders?

Different groups will be impacted differently by the scenarios, and it’s important to consider their perspectives and needs.

11: Who are the winners and losers in the scenario?

Understanding who will benefit and who will suffer in the scenario can provide important insights.

12: What are key artifacts that can make this scenario memorable?

Including memorable artifacts such as images and concepts can help make the scenario more engaging and easier to remember.

13: Are the events in the scenarios consistent?

Ensuring that each scenario is internally and externally consistent is a prerequisite for building plausible and believable futures.

14: How is each scenario different from each others and different from the world of today?

Scenarios needs to be structurally or qualitatively different from the others so we make that we explore a range of possibilities for the future. Also, the world of tomorrow is likely not a linear development from today, which makes a status quo scenario undesirable.

By asking these questions, scenario builders can create more robust, comprehensive, and compelling scenarios that are grounded in reality and provide valuable insights for decision-making and planning.

Originally published on Medium.