The Balancing Act: How to use Foresight for Multiple Horizons
Creating a ripple effect in the present to set you up for both short-term wins and long-term success.
Photo by Claudia Gschwend on Unsplash
Have you ever felt stuck in a job that seems to be going nowhere, while you desperately want to make a meaningful impact? Meet Ann, a mid-level manager at a large corporation. For the past eight years, she’s watched her company stagnate. Despite a mission and vision statement plastered on the walls, no one takes it seriously. The younger staff even joke about the company's one-step-forward, two-steps-backward approach.
Ann remains undeterred. She dreams of forging a brighter future for the company, even though the CEO is set to retire in a year with a hefty stock option package. The newly hired COO is squeezing every last drop of profit, pushing the staff to their limits. Unsurprisingly, this has led to a massive exodus, with 50% of her team either gone or actively job-hunting.
Ann is at a crossroads: should she stay and fight for change, or join the exodus?
Understanding the Problem: The Perils of Short-Termism
💡 Planning for the future based solely on the past is like driving while looking in the rear-view mirror.
If the company doesn’t change its course, it risks becoming obsolete, much like Blockbuster, which focused on its retail stores while ignoring the rise of digital streaming. Or Nokia, which stuck to incremental improvements while Apple and Android took over the smartphone market.
The typical response to these issues? Pour more money into current operations, hope for the best, or hire consultants who merely confirm existing biases. This approach often results in a quick profit grab that fails to sustain long-term growth. Ann sees this clearly, and it’s deeply frustrating. The short-term focus is demoralizing, and she feels isolated as her efforts to drive change are ignored.
The Trap of Short-Term Profits
Our society is riddled with short-termism. From political cycles to corporate incentives, the focus is often on immediate gains rather than sustainable growth. Most companies realize too late that their strategies aren't working, leading to a slow and painful decline. Even giants like Amazon acknowledge their vulnerability; as Jeff Bezos famously said, “I predict one day Amazon will fail. Amazon will go bankrupt.”
The average tenure of companies on the S&P 500 has plummeted from 33 years in 1965 to a projected 15 years by 2028. In our fast-paced, globalized world, focusing only on short-term gains is a recipe for disaster.
The Emotional Toll
Ann feels hopeless and disengaged due to the lack of meaningful direction within her company. Her frustration grows as she sees potential solutions, but the organization remains resistant to change. This persistent short-term focus erodes her motivation and belief in the company. She feels isolated and unimportant as her efforts go unrecognized.
Predicting the Worst Outcome
If Ann’s company continues on this path, it risks stagnation and eventual failure. Like Blockbuster and Nokia, it could miss critical trends and opportunities for innovation, leading to obsolescence. Employees will continue to experience apathy and frustration, resulting in high turnover and a demoralized workforce. The lack of meaningful progress will create a widespread feeling of futility, making it difficult to attract and retain talent, especially among younger generations seeking purpose and alignment with their values.
Foresight on Three Horizons
In my own work, I’ve faced similar challenges, trying to convey the importance of foresight to key stakeholders. This journey led me to discover the Three Horizons framework, which balances the present (Horizon 1), emerging opportunities (Horizon 2), and future transformations (Horizon 3).
Futures thinking and strategic foresight help cut through the noise, providing a broader perspective on future opportunities and moving beyond short-term biases.
Here's how it works:
Core (Horizon 1): Investigate and challenge current assumptions.
Emerging (Horizon 2): Anticipate and understand emerging developments.
Future (Horizon 3): Imagine and explore future transformational changes.
Futures thinking enables companies to look past the typical 1-3 year planning period, spot valuable signals, and maintain a steady strategic direction even amid leadership changes. This approach helps organizations stay resilient and ready for whatever the future holds.
Ann’s Path Forward
Ann needs to prepare for the emerging new reality of her company. She should:
Seek outside perspectives to prevent decision paralysis.
Find allies among other intrapreneurs and forward-thinkers.
Identify a sponsor at a higher level within the organization.
Bring in an external expert to amplify her efforts and provoke thought.
Become Futures Ready
How does your company balance short-term pressures with long-term goals? What steps have you taken to ensure you’re future-ready?
What we offer is a transformation service to help your organization become futures ready, not just for the moment but for the long run. Starting with a strategic exploration of scenarios, we work through culture, leadership, capabilities, and processes to make your organization futures ready. Be like IBM or Apple, not like Blockbuster or Nokia.
Alternatively, if you’re looking for a flash of innovation, cutting-edge futures insights, or to learn how to become futures literate, we offer futurist-as-a-service. We help you put on the long lens to create sustainable and meaningful changes and solutions.
Contact us at hi@anticipate.dk and let's anticipate the future together.
